Study Finds Reductions in Overseas Aid Could Trigger 22M Deaths
Scientists publishing in The Lancet Global Health highlight that childhood mortality from infectious illnesses has plummeted dramatically over two decades, primarily driven by donor-financed health initiatives across low-income nations.
Yet they caution that abrupt funding withdrawals by major contributors including the United States and United Kingdom threaten to reverse decades of life-saving gains.
The research team examined correlations between aid fluctuations and mortality statistics in recipient nations spanning 2002 through 2021, then modeled future outcomes across three distinct pathways: maintaining current funding levels, moderate reductions mirroring recent trends, and drastic cuts slashing aid to approximately half of 2025 allocations by decade's end.
The drastic reduction model forecasts roughly 22.6 million excess deaths through 2030, encompassing 5.4 million children under age five.
Moderate funding decreases would yield an estimated 9.4 million preventable deaths, including 2.5 million young children, researchers calculate.
Principal investigator Prof. Davide Rasella of ISGlobal indicated the moderate projection reflects observable patterns, while the severe scenario corresponds with policy positions from ascending right-wing movements across multiple nations, including Reform UK, which has proposed slashing Britain's aid allocation by an additional 90%, media reported.
Multiple leading donor governments—Germany, the US, and Sweden among them—have unveiled significant budget reductions.
American aid expenditures contracted by over half during 2025, plunging from $68 billion to $32 billion.
The UK intends to decrease aid from 0.5% to 0.3% of GDP by 2028 to finance expanded defense budgets.
Collectively, investigators determined that historical aid programs correlate with a 39% reduction in mortality among children under five, demonstrating particularly pronounced effects against infectious threats including HIV/AIDS and malaria, plus malnutrition-linked conditions.
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